A risk range shows how two options perform in downside, expected, and upside conditions, then identifies dominance, overlap, and the option with the smaller downside exposure.
Use the same outcome unit and coherent downside, expected, and upside conditions.
The result checks dominance, overlap, expected position, and downside protection.
The three values are structured scenarios. They do not form a confidence interval and do not say how likely each condition is.
Do not give one option a severe downside and the other an ordinary bad month. Define shared external conditions before estimating performance.
An option with a higher midpoint may still fail a cash, safety, or service threshold in the downside case.
Suppose Option A has values of 20, 70, and 130 across downside, expected, and upside conditions. Option B has values of 50, 65, and 85. A has the higher midpoint and upside, but B protects 30 more units in the downside case. The ranges overlap, so neither option dominates every entered condition.
If any result below 40 is unacceptable, A fails in the downside condition while B remains eligible. If the decision can absorb 20 and the upside matters, compare how plausible the scenarios are and whether a reversible pilot can reveal which environment is developing.
Check whether the same demand, price, or delivery event drives both ranges. Shared causes can move both options together and make apparent diversification misleading. Record the source for each endpoint and widen weak estimates instead of making both ranges look equally certain. Revisit the range when an assumption changes rather than silently moving one endpoint.
Record the shared scenario assumptions and the downside boundary that cannot be crossed.
Use the two-option comparison engine to preserve constraints, evidence, and missing facts beside this calculation. Read the EITHER.SO comparison methodology before treating any calculated lead as final.
Use coherent scenarios and comparable units instead of treating the range as a statistical confidence interval.
No. It is a structured comparison of downside, expected, and upside scenarios supplied by the user. It does not estimate statistical coverage or the probability that an outcome falls inside the range.
Build scenarios for two optionsUse one coherent external condition for both options, such as lower demand or a delayed launch. Do not give one option an extreme failure and the other an ordinary weak result. Record any hard threshold the downside must not cross.
Stress-test a decisionOverlap means the options can produce similar values under some entered conditions. It does not make them equally likely or equally safe. Compare the central values, downside limits, and evidence behind the ranges before choosing.
Learn how to use estimate ranges